CES 2008: Understanding Industry Trends

The Keynote

The keynote is an interesting animal. It's really a dual-purpose speech, as it allows the company to both tell you where it’s heading and to tell you that it's the leader of its field. After all, they don't let just anyone give a keynote - trust me, I tried to get on the list...and I know you won't believe this, but they said I wasn't qualified enough. Oh well, maybe next year.

Really, though, to be invited to give a keynote presentation is really an honour not just for yourself, but for your company. To be giving one at CES means that your company is considered to be the de facto leader in its portion of the technology sector. And you need only look at the names to see why: Bill Gates of Microsoft, Paul Otellini of Intel, Toshihiro Sakamoto of Panasonic, Brian Roberts of Comcast and finally Rick Wagoner of General Motors.

Every major branch of the industry is represented - software, hardware, consumer electronics, connectivity and transportation. Note that Panasonic has been given the honour of representing the consumer electronics sector - last year, we were listening to Sony in that spot. That changing of the guard is important unto itself, a perfect example of the consumer response to corporate bad form.

But enough of the list, let's take a look at a couple of this year's big ones...

Microsoft Keynote

When I covered the Bill Gates keynote, I mentioned that it was a little light on the specifics of Microsoft products. However, that's a very far cry from containing nothing of substance. Not all things important in the industry are new releases - in fact, many times the industry will go through a cycle. There's a spurt of creativity as new products and devices flood the market, and then there's a period of tidying where those products are properly refined to function.

It's the latter that Microsoft seems to be at this year, which is actually quite a blessing. Many people expect that Vista's life will be very short-lived, another Windows ME. However, that's really not looking to be the case - Microsoft is using the changes that it brought to market behind the scenes with Vista as a starting point for a push into interoperability with consumer devices.

One of the biggest changes with Windows Vista is in its driver model, which actually (when used properly) has made a huge step forward for device manufacturers. Methods are now in place to allow automatic syncing, updating, and discoverability, making data moving a lot easier than it was in Windows XP. On top of that, improved search functionality and the ability for other programs to have access to the search model makes it easy for programs to find and group all of your music, pictures or other media, no matter where they might be located on your drive.

When you combine these two improvements, it's easy to see how the Sync project and the improved Windows Live and Zune Social are natural evolutions. Your media player (iPod included) transmits its data to your car after uploading all of your music simply and easily via WiFi from your computer – this is thanks to a search and update function in software. If it's a Zune (undoubtedly this will be expanded to other players), it counts how much you listen to certain music, automatically syncing your favourites tracks and artists to your Zune Social page where others can see and listen.

In the meantime, all of your pictures can be downloaded from your camera to your computer, where software can automatically bridge to upload them directly to your Windows Live space (which also shares the extended search capabilities). Enter in a couple bits of info, and you're set to go - all in a matter of seconds, rather than the minutes it takes to navigate to various pages, do manual uploads, etc.

Microsoft has taken this one step farther, as illustrated with the Sync system - interoperability is about transparent interfacing, Gates said. Keyboards and mice are not how a person thinks of interaction - instead, it needs to be more simplified - touch screen, sound activation, stylus...these new input methods bring the industry a step forward. Not only is it about making everything work together, but about making it work together in a way that we as users can innately grip.

Intel Keynote

Intel's CEO Paul Otellini gave quite an interesting keynote this year on how the internet is shaping the world's expectations of consumer devices. More and more, consumers are expecting to see the power of the Internet in their hands, be it via their cell phones, PDAs, GPS systems or media players.

Otellini stressed a worldwide, Internet-connected, always-on network like WiMAX as the key to the future. No matter what level of interoperability you have, he mused, it would be useless if it cannot connect to the systems it needs to operate with. Processors must get lighter and faster so that things like translation of a conversation can be done in real time, rather than be a lethargic, multi-step process requiring several user inputs.

His highlight example included a person travelling through Beijing but speaking no Chinese. Through use of a small consumer device, the person could translate menus, street signs, and spoken conversation in real-time - a real-world babelfish. Such a device would be useless were it not powerful enough to do the decoding, energy efficient enough to last some time before recharging, and connected enough to update regularly with new words, languages, or idioms.